The Funny Truth

UFC 306: Asking An Expert Who To Bet On

• Adam Jay / Adam Newsome • Season 1 • Episode 20

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Listen as Pro Bettor and Founder of MMAPlay365, Adam Newsome weighs in vs me, a comedian on picking the title fights for UFC 306, Merab Dvalishvili vs Sean O'Malley and Grasso vs Shevchenko.

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So UFC 306, I texted you yesterday and I said, should I empty the account on Marab? And what'd you say? I wouldn't. You're now rockin' with the funny truth Because it's better with a laugh The truth is more appealing when it put you on your ass Keep it real, I will make a slap with the real I feel like everybody got a cap and I'm finna reveal it through a joke The human is the way that I provoke It's the only way to get you to promote So here we go, we gettin' serious now It's the truth, but you know we gotta give you a smile We gotta do that now, stick around and we gon' make you laugh out loud. Stick around and we gon' make you laugh out loud. You're now rockin' with the funny tru Would I be shocked if either fighter won? And I know that's a bit of a cliche. No, no, I wouldn't. I think both fighters have got the pass of victory. Both fighters could win. But I genuinely think that, I mean, I would never recommend empty in the bank account on any fight. know, MMA is a volatile sport as it is. But I genuinely think that I wouldn't call it a 50 -50 fight. I've got my lean, which we can talk about in a bit. But, yeah, I genuinely I think that It would definitely be a bad idea emptying your account on my rap. yeah, I've done that and just just really quickly as well I'm just just for just for everybody listening as well. Like I've been I've been a professional gambler now for almost ten years and When you look back on on the raps I'm just bringing it up now when you look back on the raps record and who is fight who is for in the UFC I Think I pretty much bet on my robin Not I wouldn't say every fight think it's most fights in the UFC I bet on Marab. Won every bet of course. Never lost on him. If he's been under minus 300, I've likely took that. I've even had him at plus money against Peteyan when every man and his dog was on Peteyan to actually smoke him. So I've been, know, Marab's been a real, real cash cow for me in the UFC. Like I'm just looking at the record now. Casey Kenny, think I bet him there. Gustavo Lopez, I bet him there. John Dodson, think I bet him there. Stamen, definitely bet him. Marlon Marais, I definitely bet him. Aldo, I bet him. Jan, I bet him. I didn't bet him against Sahudo. Why'd you throw Stamen under the bus? I definitely bet him. It was just a real good matchup. Not a foul. I that the line was much, much shorter than what it should have been. And yes, Sahudo was the only one that I didn't just because of Sahudo's wrestling. Didn't know how it was. how it was going to factor in with with Marab. yeah, pretty much every fight apart from maybe a couple in the UFC that I've not met Marab. Yeah, you know, from the handicapper analysis, I don't know, from what I've seen, I feel like it's going to be like the Bala Muhammad fight. That's what I that's what I think it's going to be. But I could be wrong. That's maybe just because I said that right after the Bilal fight. was like, the next one is going to be just like this. Cause that's, that's kind of how he is. Like if you love MMA and you appreciate the sport, you're like, that's not boring. But if you want to see some highlight reels, definitely not highlight reel knockout. Yeah. Listen, you talk, you're talking to the right guy when he comes to wrestling and grappling, like the daggy Stanny Russians since I first started watching this sport. has always been the style that I've enjoyed the most. Of course, I like the big knockouts. You can't forget about an Ingan who knocked over him out and we thought there was a dead body on the canvas for a minute. But the Dagestani Russians, wrestling, the NCAA D1 wrestlers in the UFC has always been the style that I've personally loved the most. I know from the outside, if you're maybe a boxing fan that's coming to MMA and you want to see the big knockouts. That you find the wrestling and grappling boring. But for me, yeah, I love that. I love that side of the game. Now, do you like watching boxing? No, no, I'm not. I'm not a boxing fan at all. Don't get me wrong. There's been a couple of fights there that I have watched and really enjoyed. I can't remember the opponent now, it's a famous one for Karl Froch. when he said, I've done it in front of 80 ,000 in front of Wembley. I can't remember who that opponent was, but that was a good fight. Again, we're going back years though with that. There has been a couple - Not Jake Paul? No, no, no. boxing's not for me. When someone gets knocked down, I want them to get on top, some ground and pound some elbows, look for a submission. I appreciate the sport, like 100%. For what it is. Yeah, it's an Olympic sport. When I used to train myself, I could never box. I was more of a kickboxer with my striking. So I can absolutely appreciate the difficulty that comes with boxing. And like I say, it's an Olympic sport. It's one that you have to respect. But just like with football and rugby, I cannot stand rugby. I've watched football, or for you guys who call it soccer, incorrect. But yeah, boxing's not for me. The last one I watched was Ryan Garcia, Devin Haney, and it was just so annoying because every time something looked like it was going to happen, the ref breaks it up. And then it feels like if there's, you know, a rigged sport, boxing is right up there at the top. Just give us history. I didn't want to say it, but yeah, I completely agree. think it's, I think it's probably one of the most corrupt sports on the planet, if I'm being honest. Even at Olympic level, like I was watching some of the Olympic boxing and look, I'm not going to pretend that I know exactly how boxing is scored because I don't, but you get an idea as a spectator when someone's done better than somebody else when you watch combat sports and there were robberies in the Olympics. Yeah, well, I want to talk about that. A couple of things. First of all, did you watch the Nganu and Tyson Fury boxing match? Yeah, yeah, I did watch that. I don't know if it felt like Inganu won because I like UFC and all the people I was with I was like Dude you should because like Fury was like minus it was it was not worth betting on and I was like dude if you put ten bucks on Inganu and he wins you get like a hundred something bucks you might as well and then I felt like he won but I just feel like I thought So I mean my wife watches and my wife doesn't really watch combat sports unless she's live at an event, but we were both sort of really intrigued by this Fiori and Enganu. This Enganu fight, so we watching it. After the fight finished, after the final bell, I remember saying to her, I think Enganu's won the fight, but there's absolutely no way they're gonna score it to Enganu. And that's exactly what happened. I think he got one judge's decision, if I remember correctly. Was that also not the fight where... They booked Yusik before that fight had even happened as well because I'm pretty sure before Ingano fought Fiori, they already lined up Fiori versus Yusik as a championship fight a couple of months afterwards before Fiori fought Ingano. again, that, you know, there was absolutely no way they were going to have gone through all that difficulty of booking the fight, signing the contracts, getting the venue, started promoting it. For then Fiori to lose that fight, it would have been horrific for them. So. Right. And see, I'm going to decision and boxing is a lot more common than it would be in like a UFC heavyweight fight going to a decision. Yeah, exactly. It's weird to me how the heavyweights have like the longest shelf lives. Like you'll see their records and there'll be like 41 wins, 27 losses. And you'd think that they take the most damage being that big. I don't do you know, do you know why that is? No, no, I've got no idea. Same with the UFC though. No, that's I was talking about. I was talking about the UFC. Yeah, UFC heavyweights peak at maybe 35, I would say. In my opinion, just on an average perspective, obviously, summer before, summer after. You look at Randy Couture, think he won a belt at 43 or whatever it was. I do think that it's around 35, 36, whereas you look at a 35, 6 -year -old flyweight, and they're at the tail end of their career. At least that's what the... the public perspective is on it. yeah, like going back to going back to this old this old Mali and Yan fight as well. One thing that you mentioned there is you thought it was very similar to Balal and that's what you said to me on on WhatsApp a couple of days ago now. said, look, I think it's going to be exactly the same. Now, I kind of disagree with that. And I give you a couple of reasons why. Because a stylistic reason. Kind of I think there's a stylistic reason and there's a skill set reason. So sure first of all, I think that whereas Balal was an all -around type of fighter in regards to his style Like I don't think he specifically shines in one specific area. He's just very good everywhere I perhaps more of a specialist within the wrestling sure within the wrestling the pressure wrestling So and I think there's a difference there in regards to comparing Balal to Murat as for a second thing from a skill set perspective is one thing that Balal was able to do that Murab isn't able to do and bearing in mind look I'm not I'm not going to be someone that talks down on Murab he's been a cash cow for me like I said right at the start there's a reason I bet him in almost every fight but one thing Murab doesn't do and I've even said this on every single breakdown I've done of Murab is he doesn't have topside grappling at the higher level in the UFC so the better the better level of opponents he's been fighting as he's made his way up into the UFC, the less top control time he's had because everyone, you know, the better fighter you fight, the better they are everywhere. And these fighters in the top, in the top two, three, five, 10, 15, they can all stand back up to the feet if they're taken down, if there isn't a, you know, a real good topside grappler on top of them. And Murad just isn't that. And the proof of that. go and look at how many takedowns he actually completes in a single fight. He's up there with seven takedowns, eight takedowns, nine takedowns, 10 takedowns. The reason he's hitting 10 takedowns in a fight, in a three round fight as well, is because his opponents are standing back up. So he's got to take them down again. So what Balal did against Leon is when he took him down, Leon put his shoulder to the cage and Balal was sinking a hook in on the cage. He was holding him. down controlling him, he was doing some good work within the grappling. I just do not see Marab having that type of success against Sean O'Malley with controlling the grappling. now you've got... I feel like you see that with... I feel like you see that the smaller weight classes they are, the less they're able to have control time in general. Yeah, 100%. Like you look at a heavyweight, a 265 pound man on top of you, it doesn't matter if you're 265 pounds yourself, it's gonna be very difficult to shift that human being off the top of you. But what you've got now then with Marab and not being able to have extended periods of time controlling top side, and I mentioned this on my own podcast as well, it's the shift in how the judges are scoring fights. The judges no longer score takedowns very high. And I think this is going to be a real issue for Marab's style and this is something that's only happened over the last couple of years. Like, go back four five years ago and yeah, Marab's a cash cow for a reason. He's scoring a lot of takedowns and he's scoring a lot of points. basically what I'm saying for this fight, think if Marab's scoring takedowns, O'Malley's going to be getting straight back up. There's going be a lot of time in the clinch against the cage. Murab's going to be on the on a single leg, chained into a double leg, maybe trying to sneak around the back and he'll be effective in what he's doing against the cage. However, there is going to be moments where O'Malley separates and exit out into space. And whilst that happens into space, Murab's hittable. Murab's also going to be shorter. He also wants to take down. So he's going to have to close the distance on O'Malley. And when he's coming in, he's hittable. I think O'Malley's going to be landing some good strikes, some good striker shots, he might be a knee up there as well. And even if O'Malley doesn't knock Marab out, I think when you're looking at the rounds, if you're seeing maybe a minute, maybe 60, 90 seconds worth of good striking from O'Malley, and then the rest of the round is Marab just trying to run the clock down, or maybe not trying to, but running the clock down by trying to wrestle. I think the judges are going to favor the work that O'Malley's doing with how the scoring fights in 2024. And this is why... That's what I wanted to ask you about. Yeah, this is why I paused on a Marab bet for this fight, because now you can grab Marab at plus money. OK, so this would be an ideal spot for me to bet Marab. But I just can't. I can't get on board with Marab for this fight. Like, would I be shocked if he landed 28 downs? Because, there does become a point where... even if you aren't doing anything topside, if Marab's scoring 5 -6 takedowns per round, which is cardio will allow him to do, then that becomes a point where it crosses that line and that the work that O'Mell is doing probably isn't as significant. But I genuinely don't think Marab will, you know, Marab's been wrestling that heavy to do 6 or 7 takedowns in a round. So I just think that... The work that O'Malley does out in space, the judges are going to like more than what Murab's doing. I think that, I think it's a case of that. also very last point, I think Sugar Sean is coming into UFC superstar status. I think he's super marketable. I think the UFC want to get behind him. The UFC will absolutely market him more than Murab. mean, even Dana White's been slating Murab for coming out with the cut on his eye and showing that in public. So it's very obvious who the UFC wants to win this fight. And more often than not, UFC get what they want. So that's where I'm at. Well, yeah, and it's not like Marab's really a finisher type of fighter. So I wanted to bring up Judge's scoring. This was, I believe, the tie to Iwasa fight got destroyed. Like it should have been a 30 -27, maybe a 10 -8 round in one of those rounds. And he lost by split decision. Do you know what I'm about? to Rosenstrike. yeah, yeah, yeah, okay. yeah, there's been some terrible cards. think there was a couple on that specific event as well. There was another one, yeah, there was definitely another one that was just absolutely shocking. It was actually worse than that tie to Ivasha one. Really? And I actually bet to Ivasha as well. So I was like, yeah, so when the scorecard came up, obviously as soon as the week went. Yeah, I had it on upstairs and I came downstairs and like, you know I was gonna take a break between the fights and went up and saw the tweets and stuff and was like, Split decision and they said like yeah, so they kicked the judge out for the rest of the card. Yeah Yeah, that was the one that kicked the judge out. But yeah when I when I heard the one judge's name, know It's gonna be a split. So I was sat there thinking come on Robin Robin, know, just for my own benefit obviously now for my better win I don't like seeing bad judges decision for you know, it's a part of the sport now, I suppose. Yeah, those are, and they go your way sometimes too, where you're like, I won, all right, I'll take it. Yeah. So, often enough though. Do they, you know, like I know with sports betting, there's another page I follow that does a lot of football, baseball stuff, and they have one of their big analytics, you know, betting overs and unders and spreads, and they have like a whole system for like whoever's reffing and what the Spread is to start and who's the underdog and whatnot. Do we know that in UFC? there anywhere to find who's gonna be raffling and who's gonna be judging? Sometimes it's leaked. Not that I say leaked in a bad way. Sometimes the information is given to or yeah, it's given to certain outlets. So like I have seen something from MMA junkie, MMA fighting for an upcoming pay -per-view. said, right, for the main event, it's gonna be this. this referee and these judges, for the co -main event, this referee and these judges, they don't do it for every fight or for every fight card. It only seems to be these real huge global events where they'll probably just leak the main event and co -main event. So no, it's very difficult. But I'll be honest with you, Adam, don't think that, I don't think refereeing's an issue in the sport. I think that you'll, a referee will have a bad performance every now and again, but that's just sport. You know, you're going to get that in every single sport. I genuinely don't think there's a certain referee or multiple referees in the UFC that I'd be like, nah, like he's not good. don't think the referee is an issue. think judging is an issue. judging is the real problem. the reason why I don't think it's that significant telling you which judges are going to be judging the five before handers, I kind of don't think there's many great judges out there anyway. So I don't think it matters. I think you're always going to be playing with fire a little bit. That's just a spot. Look, I think more often than not, the judges get it right, which is the best thing that I can say about MMA judges. it just, but the lack of, the lack of consistency and the obvious, like bad scorecards just happened more than they should. could be, it could be something to note, like if you found like some sort of trend where You know, when this person is judging and it does go to a decision, you're like, this fight's probably gonna go to decision that this person usually wins if they're a favor. Something. There's gotta be something, but... What I look for when I'm sort of analyzing fights, the thing that I do actually put some weight into is if my fight is a bit of a decision king, right? It's how they're winning decisions. If they're winning them closely, like... close competitive rounds but they're just finding the edges in specific rounds that causes a bit of concern. If they're a decision king because they absolutely just dominate every minute of the fight then yeah that's fine that's what you want. So I do try and stay away from like if I like fighter A to beat fighter B but I know fighter A fights to close decisions but does win more often than not it will still I'll still be very hesitant on better not fighting. if a fighter I know goes to a decision and like I say is ragdolling his opponents or is a super slick striker that's impossible to take down. I'll give you good example. Taylor Lachalouse, I bet Taylor Lachalouse a few months ago and he's one of these again elite level strikers where not many fighters are going to be at his level outside of the top 15 but he's got almost godlike takedown defense and if for some reason you do manage to take him down He's got a godlike get up here. You're not going to be able to keep the dude down either. So I know that he's going to go to a decision probably. But I also know he's not going to get taken down and if he is he's going to stand right back up and then the judges aren't going to score. Exactly what I just said with Murab against O'Malley. So then it comes down to the striking. And I know he's a better striker than my opponent. And again there's a lot of similarities in what I've just said there with O'Malley and Murab. I think Murab's going to score takedowns definitely. But I don't think he's going to get the top time enough to score, to score or least weight heavily on the judges, in the judges eyes. And then I think it leaves us with the analysis of who's going to be the better striker. And I think that's absolutely going to be O'Malley. Yeah, that's not really, I don't think that's, I don't think that's a contest. Yeah. Okay. Is there any fighter that you can never seem to win on? For me, it's, it's all, it's been Izzy. Every time I bet on him, I've lost every time I bet. against him I lose. Yeah, there's been a couple, historically actually first started with Chris Weidman. So I'm just going to get it up on topology now. So Chris Weidman and then there is a current fighter who was actually a champion who I actually struggle with believe it or not. So Chris Weidman, just getting these up now on topology. So Weidman was horrific. So let me go box. I do have a good memory with my bets. So, I bet Anderson Silver in the first fight when he knocked Silver out. didn't bet. And then I bet Silver in the second fight as well and beat Silver in the second fight also. Then I did bet Chris Weidman against Machida but that was actually a controversial decision I believe. And then I didn't bet him against Belfort. Or did I bet Belfort against White? I might have bet Belfort. And then I bet Weidman against Rockhold lost. I bet Weidman against Romero lost. I bet Weidman against Mousasi lost. And I was like, right, I'm not betting Weidman. So then I bet Kelvin Gastelum against Weidman and he won. And then I bet Weidman against Jack O 'Rae and he lost. I bet Weidman against Ray Eze lost. And then I bet on Akhmedov against Weidman and he won. So yeah, he's really frustrated me. The current fighter that I struggle with I have won one bet on him but he's Alex Pereira. I Alex Pereira fights. So like I bet Strickland against Pereira, Pereira won. I didn't bet the Adesanya fight so I stayed away from that first Adesanya fight but I bet Pereira in the second fight against Adesanya and lost that. The fight that I won on Pereira was Jan Blachowicz but he almost threw that fight away like It's crazy how I almost lost that bet. Somehow the split went the right way. So then I got put off by Pereira because of that. So then I Yiri Prataster against Pereira lost that. Then I bet Jamal Hill against Pereira lost that. And then I stayed away from that second Yiri fight because at this point I was just like, yeah, I'm struggling. yeah, Pereira has not been a good fight. Pretty much won every fight except the Adesanya fight. Yeah, and I think it was the Jan Blachowicz fight that completely and utterly threw me in. Like looking back at that now, I think that's just one of those fights that I think the athlete just had an off night. And you have to appreciate and understand that as good as any athlete is, you look at Cristiano Ronaldo or Lionel Messi, they're going to have a bad game. They're going to have a bad game where they're not in the game when they're not doing anything and they are the best in the world or were the best in the world. Well, yeah, fighting's so - Fighting's so different because you can't just like go back and get it right back. You have to wait, maybe have injuries. People are like, I'm not fighting him again. I'm fighting someone else. that's, and then there's like a, it's not like you build up to a playoff. So it's like they choose who gets to fight and it's all hearsay. What was I gonna ask you? So the other one that I'm really interested in that I'm like, You've kind of talked me down from the ledge on Marab. Makes sense. What I would say to everybody is look, regardless of what I say, what my opinions are my analysis and breakdowns, I've been wrong before. I'll definitely be wrong again. So, you know, if you're confident in your lean and what you're seeing, then absolutely go for it. like I say, I'm just giving you my opinions and my thoughts on how the fight is going to take place. chances of fighters winning by finish, by decision, how the judges are gonna potentially be scoring the fight. And also as a champion as well, you've got to beat the champion too. And I don't think Marab's gonna finish O'Malley. I don't think he knocks him out. I don't think the sub makes If you were to bet that Marab finishes him, that would be, think, yeah, would be, you would like 10X your money. Yeah, so look, for Marab to win, it's gonna be by decision and he's going to have to dominate O'Malley to win. And I just don't think he dominates. I think he's competitive, 100%. Just don't think he dominates. Okay. The other one I'm really excited about. last three fights of that card I'm really excited for. I've always been a big Shevchenko fan. Do you think she gets the title back? Was it a fluke? No, I don't think she gets the title back. Really? Yeah, I've got some strong thoughts on this fight actually because like... Sorry, I just went out and I run yesterday, I'm still a bit stiff. So, with Grasso, right, she's progressively getting better in this specific fight. You look at the first fight, she was losing the fight. I think, in my opinion, I don't think there'll be many people that'll disagree. And then she capitalised on a strange mistake that Shevchenko made and submitted it. So, then you go into the second fight, and I'm thinking, well... Well look, a start, Shevchenko, even though she lost that first fight by submission, she's still the favourite in the second fight, which tells you, you know, what went down in that first fight. So... Is she the favourite? I thought she was the underdog. No, no, no. was the... Shevchenko was the favourite in the second fight. She wasn't as this is their third time fighting. No, the... Yeah, this is their third time fighting, yeah. So the first fight, Grasso submitted her. The second fight was losing the entire fight. The second fight... Shevchenko still the favorite, just a shorter favorite, and it goes to the draw. Now, I think there's a couple of things wrong with that decision. First of all, I personally had it 2 -2 going into round three, and I thought Grasso, well, Grasso did win that final round. So I thought Grasso actually won the fight. The second thing is a judge scored round five, one judge scored round five to a 10 -8 round to Grasso, which made the draw. If that judge had scored 10 -9, which... By the way, absolutely was a 10 -9. Yes, Grasso had a good round, but he wasn't a 10 -8. So if that was a 10 -9, which I believe it should have been, Shevchenko wins the fight and gets the bell back. However, the way I'm seeing the fight is I saw a much more competitive Grasso that I thought won the fight. So we're going from fight one where it was close, but Grasso wasn't on Shevchenko's level. Now we're going to the second fight and Grasso's looking insane. She's switching stances, she's fighting. Southport orphanage she drops she dropped Shevchenko in that second fight so which is rare well Exactly, so now I'm thinking well Grasso is getting progressively better every time she finds this this specific opponent so Going into the third fight this weekend. I think she looks even better again. You think that I think that divisions just so Bleak as far as other people who can really compete outside of what the top two that they're having a third fight? Yeah, I think that when you're... But the part of the trilogy is because Grasso won an upset victory, so the rematch was always going to happen. And then that rematch was a draw, so they have to run it back again. So I think there's an element of that as well. But the other side to this is, look, like, I think the percentage is something like 71 % of rematches are won by the fighter that won the first fight. Sure. And... When it comes to championship fights, when a dominant, long reigning champion loses their belt, they never really seem to win it back. Of course it happens a couple of times, but more often than not, they never win that belt back. Now Shevchenko's 36 years old. I feel like she lost her belt and hasn't been able to win it back in the rematch, even though it was a draw. And I just feel that Grasso is just getting her. Every time she fights her, Every minute that she's in the cage with her, every round she's in the cage with her, I think she's getting more data on her. I think she's learning more about her style and that's why she's becoming progressively better. with, yeah, like I just think it's, I think with Shevchenko, where Shevchenko has proven to be better than Grasso is within the wrestling, she's a much better wrestler. She's taken her down eight times across the two fights, four times in each fight. And Grasso's been able to stand up every single time and she doesn't spend too long on her back. So again, a bit like what I mentioned with O'Malley, I think if Shevchenko takes it down, which I absolutely expected to take it down, think Grasso gets right back up to her feet. And then this pressure boxing from Grasso, think is just a bit of a kryptonite for Shevchenko. I really do. So, yeah, I think Grasso wins. OK, so you got both the favorites and then are you taking Ortega or are we looking at... Lopez my gut would say take Lopez but If you're convincing me that the two because I I've never picked have you ever picked a perfect? main card before I'm never yeah, I will have done in some part. I mean I've been watching UFC for 10 years So I'm sure it will have happened at some point and I'm sure was so hard as well, but So I'm not with with Ortega and because another thing as well just really quickly Joan you mentioned to me about fighters that I've never really been good at that in Ortega's another one. He's always been a bit strange to me. Like he's won where I felt like he shouldn't have won and then he's lost in the fights that I've jumped on him because he's winning the fights that he shouldn't have won and then he loses them. So this fight was actually booked a couple of months ago, if you remember. yeah. showed up to the bar and was like, Dan Egate's fighting? Am I, did I miss something here? So they were booked before and listen on the flip side Lopez has been a bit of a cash cow for me as well. I bet Lopez even money against Gavin Tucker when every man and his dog was on Tucker. I bet Lopez plus money I think it was plus money against Sabatini every man and his dog on Sabatini. So look I loved Diego Lopez. Now when these two were originally scheduled to fight. I not only picked Ortega but I bet him. And... I think I wrote that one as well. Yeah, and obviously the bet was buoyed because Ortega pulled out and I was quite happy about that. I've actually not bet this fight this time. I've picked Diego Lopez. The way Lopez fought against Daniegue, I know it was on short notice but what people have got to understand about Daniegue stepping in on short notice is he lives in Vegas. Yeah. He trains at Extreme Pature. He'll be in the gym every day. Maybe it's not in his own fight camp, but he'll be helping teammates in their fight camp, which means he'll be training as aggressively and as fast -paced as what his teammates are. So there's no way he comes into that fight like not ready. He's ready. He's in the gym every day. And the way that Diego Lopez dealt with Dan Higue really surprised me. Didn't he knock him out? Wasn't it like a brutal knockout? No, it was a decision I think. I'm pretty sure it a decision. I remember it was a beat down. Yeah, it was a dominant, dominant win. Yeah, it a unanimous decision. yeah, look, don't think Danny Gay is Brian Ortega's level. I think they're very close, but they're not quite the same. still the way that Lopez dealt with Ige shows that he's hanging with some of the best guys in the division because although I don't think Danny Ige is at Ortega's level right now, Danny Ige is still world class fighter in the division so the way that Lopez handled him I just think that Diego Lopez has got Ortega I've always been bad at picking Ortega, the fact that I flipped as well, not only did I pick Ortega, but I bet him and now I'm picking Diego Lopez. From a betting perspective, I don't like the line. I wish it was a bit closer. I think if it was like minus 125, minus 130, Lopez aside, I would probably bet Lopez, but we'll put like minus 180. I'm not interested, but I just think that Lopez is the guts. I think that's what people like, cause you know, whenever I get interested in something, I want to learn as much as I can about it. So when I, I mean, that's how I came across MMA play. and there was really nothing else. Still don't think there's anything else like it. and, I was like, bedding, like learning, like closing line values and then shopping around at different books. If you have access to different books and like not even necessarily picking who you think is going to win. Cause when I first started, all I would do is handicap when I would just watch fight pass and watch their last fights and they don't show the person's last fight either, which is annoying, but I think they offer that on MMA play, right? Do you have something for that? Yeah. So we've got the tape index, which helps fight study. it's three, it's like $3 .99 a month. Yeah. UFC, Bellator, PFL, Cage Warriors. It's basically just a long list of links. So rather than going on UFC Fight Pass and trying to fight certain fights because also on UFC Fight Pass certain fights on... Yeah, dude, the last fight that the fighters were in, they never have it available. It's like, you know, it's Yeah, so when that happens, it's normally in an event. So they don't cut out the individual fights. So you'd have to find the event that they were in and then scrub up to where the fight starts. So again, that's something else we do with the tape index. We'll put that link on and say fight starts at 33 minutes, 20 seconds. That's cool. And you just got to go straight to that. So yeah, when I was handicapping back to my what I was doing is I would I was probably doing it was probably taking me like 40 to 60 hours a week because I would watch I was like I have to watch at least three fights of every single person and I don't want to even look at the lines. I'm just going to pick my winners and then I'll go look at the books and see if it's worth getting on them. And that was that was interesting. But that's way too much time. Way too much time. So personally, I give it. It depends how you like to bet. I personally, I know other people like you as well that like to watch the tape before the line so the line doesn't influence the analysis. But if you can get over that block of being influenced by your betting line, it's really worth looking at the betting line first. yeah, because... And what I mean by that is look, if I look at a betting line and I see a fighter at minus 500, minus 600... I know for a fact I ain't better than that fight. I'm not better than an MMA fighter minus 500, minus 600 with real money. There's just not, there's not value in it in this sport because anything can happen. So I just won't watch tape on that fight. What's the point in wasting two, three, four hours on a fight where I know I'm not gonna bet it? So what look for is close line fights, underdogs that are maybe between like plus 200, plus 300. And then I know that those are the fights that I'll look into. And bear in mind, I've been watching this sport for years, so I've got a good idea of pretty much every fighter that fights in the UFC and who they are. So again, if I see a fighter at plus 300 and I'm like, yeah, he's plus 300 for a reason, I don't think he's gonna win this fight, then again, I'll not watch tape on it. I put my time into the fights with the lines that I know that are bettable. It's weird how the software will have the matchups Were like, the book had it right, this person was a minus 400 for a reason, but like the software said that they were like, the other person was like a 59 % favorite to win. I'm like, at those odds, like I have to bet on it. I think, I think the best one was OSP. Like in my mind, I'm like, there's no way in fuck that he's winning this fight, but it says he's like a 60 % chance. And it was like, OSP when he fought Kennedy and juku and he was yeah, I told when when you say the software you're talking about Yeah, yeah. Yeah. Okay. I was like plus 500 and I was like I'll take it and Yeah, so the craziest one the craziest one that Bayes AI has ever predicted and for those that are listening that's the UFC prediction software on on MMA play 365 comm and but The craziest one that Base .ai had was Strickland to beat Adizania, which I don't think I didn't speak to a single person or know of a single person that beat Strickland confidently to win that fight. So when that came in, mean, our guys that run the AI team are out in South Africa. So as soon as that came in, went straight on to the head developer and said, look, bro, like, is this right? And he was just like, that's what the AI is saying. So I'm like, right, okay. And yeah. Yeah, that was the Adesanya pick was like my lock. Like, yeah, he's not, there's no way he's losing this one. That was that was probably one of the best upsets I've seen. That's pretty cool. I don't think Strik will ever be a champion. of that AI is when I spoke to the guy that had AI team, he's also a big MMA fan, the best MMA as well. And even he said to me, he was like, yeah dude, like that's wrong. Not wrong as in like the algorithm's wrong, but he was just like, Yeah, I agree with you. Like, there's no way Adizania loses this fight. The AI is crazy for siding with Strickland. And then, of course, it comes in. Another big one as well. Robert Wittiger against Rikers Duplassie. The AI was very heavy on Duplassie. again, I was like, nah, I'm so confident in Wittiger winning this fight. And again, I think Wittiger was like minus 400 in that fight as well. I guess that's why I like the AI element and I almost weigh on that more because I've watched fights and I think I analyzed it perfect and was not. I just like that they're going to put the answer out there because think we oftentimes... Whitaker is a very likable guy. He's very likable to most people. You just have fan favorites. I can't bet against this guy. I can't root against him. I don't want to see him get knocked out. But, again, like I stay away from that. I just do not have any favorites in this sport. Like I have just so been so many times I've bet on one fighter, won a big bet on him. And then the next time that that fighter fights bet against him. the, one thing that I will say with the AI, obviously I don't use the AI to bet. I do all my analysis about a week before every event anyway. So I'm always a week in advance. Whereas AI predictions come out the week of the fight. So I'm always in front of the AI anyway. And also we've got the AI section and the handicapper section. So I can't use the AI to influence my bets for multiple reasons. However, once I've done my analysis, I know who I'm betting. And then the following week, the AI results will, the AI predictions will come out for that event. So when I... When I look at the air results, if one of them's weighted heavily against a fighter that I know I'm going to bear, I'd be lying if I said that I wasn't a bit like, shit. You know, it doesn't affect what I'm about to do. I'll never let it have an effect in what I bear because, like I say, we've got the difference in the packages. like, yeah, sometimes I'm a bit like, no. But then when there's a high prediction on a fighter that I know I'm going to bear, I'm more uplifted. I'm like, Yes, the AI agrees with me. So I get where you're coming from. Like I put a lot of weight in the AI. And by the way, this is coming from someone that, you know, a few years ago, I just didn't think it was possible for AI to be consistently good. And I'm talking about three, four years ago. I wasn't really a believer in it. And even when we brought it into the AI through our other business part, sorry, even when we brought the AI into MMA play, 365 for our other business partners. I was still very much on the fence about it, you know, you know, I let them do what they need to they needed to do because you know, they had a pathway in the vision for the business or even I was a bit like how good is it actually gonna be and then I think I think it was maybe like six six months to a year. I was really really sold on it. Yeah, I love I love looking at numbers doesn't mean I know what I'm doing, but I like looking at them. I'm like That's how I found NMA Play was I was like, I need someone to just condense all this so I can wake up on Saturday and make my picks. Maybe a little homework if I'm still not sure. I just liked, that's where I got into like, instead of being the handicapper side, I was just looking for beating like the closing line value or finding the best, you know, bets based off of the percentage to win the implied odds versus what the books were actually giving. I don't know. I always end up, I've had some good nights in UFC and then I also, once I start drinking, might make some bad bets. Might bet the house on Jamal Hill. Never mix alcohol with gambling is one of my piece of advice to anybody. yeah, gambling is not fueled by people doing it responsibly. Nothing's fueled by anything. being done responsibly. it's like it goes hand in hand. It's way more fun to just not care and throw the whole wad on somebody. I think that is... I think if you're gambling in the right way, I think you can do it responsibly. Like the way I do it, I believe it's responsible. There's a totally smart and responsible way. I like that because I was like, I'm tired of losing bets and doing parlays. I want to actually... people actually make money doing this and like very few do but it really comes down to more of just like you would in investing it's like just discipline like had a small little correction keep keep doing your same systems keep the unit size the same I've just so the way the way the way it works is you've got to have a bankroll and then you to have a bankroll then you bet one percent of that bankroll for every one unit that you spend And for UFC, for example, I've always been disciplined to try and not exceed 10 % of my bankroll per event, which then allows me to not go crazy, be as responsible, be as educated as it is. So I do think that the way that I go about it is as educational and responsible as it possibly could be. But yeah, that industry wouldn't. be booming if everyone was betting like that. you actually know the number of profitable gamblers across every sport globally? It's got to be like in the 1 % dude. Yeah it's 1%. 1 % of gamblers globally. Well that's because it's also it's just like everything else in life it's like you want to like have success then you got to go to the gym and go to sleep on time and eat right it's like none of the fun stuff. but like doing a 10 -leg parlay and being a fun gambler, that's, like I said, I've never picked a perfect card. I've got a lot of three for fives, four for fives, but can never pick a perfect UFC card to save my life. it's so funny how many times it will be like the minus 400 guy. I think the worst beat I had this year was like a six -leg and it was the, I think it was the, first card of the year with Strickland and was the guy who lost to Neil Magni. I can't remember his name but that made me so mad. Because he was just taking him apart piece by piece and then he's like it's not a win unless you finish him. He got finished and so stupid. yeah you're talking about Mike, Mike Malott. Mike Malott yeah. Yeah yeah yeah. And then you're like why did I even put a minus 400 guy in this to begin with? Yeah, well look, mean at minus 400, that's telling you that the masses, the public, you know... Well, he was a minus 4 ,000, like live before the round started. All he had to do was just not do what he did. And he just fell apart, didn't he? Yeah. Well, he went for it, like, he was fighting like he was down two rounds. Yeah. And I think that comes with experience. I think there's minus 400s that can have value. and there's minus 400s that you should be aware Yeah, and look, when it comes to betting a minus, if you're gonna bet a minus 400 favorite, you wanna make sure that they're experienced, that they've experienced losses before and come back. They've been on losing streaks, they've had winning streaks, that they're obviously a good fighter in that specific fight. mean, the minus 400, so you're assuming that they're gonna be. But even so, the impact. The other thing too is, I don't know about the books that you have, like on big UFC nights, DraftKings and all those, they'll give you like a profit boost if you do like a three leg or more parlay so that minus 400 is not weighted at a minus 400, I guess. There's one book in the UK that does that. How is gambling, how is sports betting out there? it widely accessible legally or is it like you have to do like Offshore thing where you have to sit like no crypto or It's one of I think it's one of the best countries in the world for gambling and Widely accessible absolutely legal There's and the other thing as well which happens in some of the European countries not sure in America But doesn't happen in the UK is except it's it's not taxable. So any really any winnings from bad Yeah, there's no tax on all three. It's it's free tax. So and The only shit thing that happens with some English books is when you are winning often they'll either limit your account or they'll spend your sports betting account. yeah dude I've seen that. winning gamblers. Whereas some books in America like there's a guy that I've spoken to a load of time, really good guy, I've been on his podcast on UFC Fight Pass as well, Nick Kalika. So Nick... nick is in adults make so he opens lines are at least he used to and he said before this some of the books that he was with or he he has worked with in the past they actually really encouraged winning gandlas because it helps it helps them dictate where lines are going and and stuff like whereas in the u k teams to be back with a solution we need to freak out and either well has imagined out a linear I have to imagine it's probably like insurance companies, You the more money that's pooled and then you can use that, the data. Like they just have enough, I guess, capital to be able to operate in that way. I know I've seen - But what really frustrates me is that the books will suspend or limit your account if you win. But if you're losing thousands and thousands, they love you. And the thing is with gambling, because it can be an addiction, they will likely be an accessor. I know they've got all the gambling addiction tools where you can limit your spend and where you can limit how long you're logged in or how much you spend a and all that sort Nobody uses those, dude. Come on. If you're an addict, you're not going to be using that feature. The bottom line is for me, the books are more than happy to accept somebody that's losing thousands, that's probably clearly got a gambling addiction. That's their best customer. And it infuriates me because when someone is actually winning, it's shitty. Either if you're winning over a certain amount or losing over a certain amount, suspend both. It's wrong. It's ethically wrong. Ethically, yeah, but come on, baby. There is... Something I thought was interesting was, so I'm always down the rabbit hole with this stuff and I started getting ads for like starting your own bookie business. they're like, we'll give you the software, give you this. And I just went and explored their website and it was like, they had AI that, you know, did it for like the live betting, like changing the lines. And then it's like, one of the features of the book was that it will identify sharp bettors and kick them out of your sports book. So. Like that was a feature of that software. Yeah. And I'll tell you the first one that I ever got, that I ever got, I didn't even limit my account. They just suspended me. It was years ago. I bet, I didn't even bet that much. I bet, I think at the time, I think I put maybe about a hundred, a hundred pounds on Tiago Santos, even money to be Jan Blachowicz, right? And he won. And the second, I'm telling you now, well, maybe not the second, but Within about an hour of that bet winning, they suspended my account over a hundred pound. Like I wasn't even, I don't even think I was, I mean, obviously I was up on that bucket, but I didn't rinse it. Cause what I did at the time, Adam, is I had about 10 different available buckets. So I always used to spread my bets between Yeah, well that's what you're supposed to do. That's the benefit of having a bunch of books. So I didn't stand out with one specific bucket. So if I knew that I was winning, that I was winning, I've won over the last couple of weeks at bookie number one, I would probably stop using that bookie for a couple of weeks so that heat would die down and I would use another one. And that's the way that I used to do it. Now, I can only use three. If I've got three books, like I've been suspended or limited. I'll tell you another one that they limited me on as well. It was a book in the UK and I bet Arnold Allen to be Calvin Cater. at minus 110. Within two hours, a lot of money came in on Arnold Allen and he went up to about minus 130, maybe minus 140. And William Hill limited me straight away because I beat the line within the space of a couple of hours. It's just, it's so difficult. like, yeah, the more than happy to accept, the more than happy to accept people with gambling addictions. But when you have to win it. Here's a free bonus bet. We want you back. Actually delete the apps. Well, there's an interesting app. I don't know if they have it where you're at, but it was the one that I was using where you can sync all your sports books up to it and it would give you the breakdowns of where you're at with each one. Do you use Picket? No. For MMA, I use a website called betmma .tips. And that tracks all my bets. So I only bet what's on that and that's got all your stats there. So can see how much I'm betting. How many units I bet, my return of investment percentage. It does all the math and the calculations for you. So yeah, I know whether I'm up or down just by going on to my bet MMA .tips profile. Now, do you think that when you'll see a big event, it'd be like boxing, UFC. They'll show like, here's how much Drake bet on this person. Do you think that they actually, do you think that he actually makes that bet or is that like, cause I felt it was the same way with like Pokemon cards. We were like, Logan Paul just paid half a million dollars for this Charizard. I'm like, did he, or are you just trying to make everyone else buy it? Cause I don't think you would just be able to sell, you know, or, or I guess I just don't think they're, they're betting that much money. I think it's more of an influencer. marketing. Yeah, it could be. If you're asking me what my opinion is, I've got absolutely no idea. Would I be shocked that, you know, multi multi millionaire Drake's bet a couple of million, which is probably just like me walking up to a drain and dropping a pound down it. And, know, would I be surprised if a multi multi millionaires chucked a couple of a million as a bit of a fun way to spend a bit of money? No. Would I be shocked if if it's all bullshit and the bookies are using it as a as a marketing scheme to maybe get people in on certain bets. I think that would be less surprising if I'm being honest. Sorry, I don't know. I'm cynical, but I'm a comedian too, so I'm always thinking like, why would he? The funny thing with Drake though is the fact that he's known for losing bets. So maybe the marketing strategy from the book is tell people who Drake's betting, everyone bets against it, and then hopefully the one that Drake bet actually does win. Maybe, I don't know. Possibly. Yeah, that's a yeah, I guess the attitude maybe is just a little bit different on betting Here now, it's so it's so much. Yeah the state that I was living in I think there's maybe one sports but like draft Kings now I live in Arizona and I never even got into sports betting so I moved here but there's like it seems to be a new sportsbook opening up every like few months that has like a Deposit this make your first bet and we'll give you these these bonus bets. It's like I'm not gonna turn down$150 in bonus bets. I can't say no to that. I'll listen. They like when it comes to match betting, because some will some will do like some UK books have done, you know, make your first bet at this book and we'll match you better than a free bet up to a thousand pound or something, which, you know, some people a thousand pounds a lot of money to what it isn't. But a thousand pounds can get you a decent amount of returns if if you're using that free bet because you have to do is put put a thousand pound on them. Even if you lose it. just about a thousand pound on something that evens with the free bet and then you've got a chance to win that back anyway. yeah, it's, Now, what was I going to say? I saw something that in, I guess in America, more people, especially like my age, younger, more people are putting money into sports betting than they are into like stock market. Right, so look, on that I'm not going to pretend that I know anything about, well I know bits about obviously the stock market, stock exchange, but definitely, definitely not an area that I have any sort of expertise in. All I know is when you're betting on like MMA for example, obviously there's a lot of volatility that comes with that, it's the same with the stock exchange. A fighter can let you down just like a business can flop, right? Yeah. But I It's a lot of parallels though where it's like, don't put all your eggs in one basket. Yeah, and the thing is with MMA, it's short term investments because what you fight is for, you've then got a return on it. Whereas a business, it's a longer term investment where you're putting money into a specific business and you're hoping that business grows. But then maybe that's where the lack of knowledge comes from because I'm sure there's people out there that will put money in a business for a month. take it out and then put it somewhere else maybe I don't know but for me I understand MMA I can analyze MMA I feel like I can I can make educated decisions based on the knowledge that I've obtained over the years of being in the sport so yeah like I say for me it's I have a bet in MMA is comfortable because I'm comfortable with it. here like because I come from that side of the world financial advising the insurance there's a lot of insurance And I'm, because I just see the parallels with all of it. You know, when you see like FanDuel, one of the bigger sports books has table tennis on, like there's always something that you can bet on. Do those, do you know if those start as like a little book in this like Czech Republic, there's like a small little book and then FanDuel comes in and buys it from them in order to fund that? I mean, I don't know if you're asking me, if you're asking me if, if that's what happens, again, it would be something that I wouldn't be too surprised about and probably a smart strategy from a business perspective to do that. Because if you're buying the smaller books around the world, then all you're doing is growing the business and gaining more territories and therefore more profit, more money, more profit. Yeah. I don't know if it's like that where you're at, but there's just always something to bet on even if it's 4 a you can find. Chinese table tennis and yeah I could I could bet on probably like an under 18 game in the Argentinian like yeah regional football circuit you know what I mean like there's always yeah there's always something to bound yeah I think well I mean I think people don't know that that are just like because like I was an athlete and then I went to college and my major was sports business and I learned the business side I'm like sports are kind of stupid man why am I cheering for these grown men. I gotta pay my own bills. And then you bring gambling into it. And I think a lot of people don't understand that that's really what fuels, especially to have all these, because I come from the basketball world, there's all these professional leagues that I would send players to on the court. There wasn't even any fans at the game, but there's just signs everywhere for betting on these games. Yeah, so it's like you look at UFC, one of UFC's biggest sponsors will be Draftkin. I haven't got the numbers, but if you said to me, do I, in my opinion, from the outside looking at him, what do I think UFC's biggest, you know, income is from sponsorship, would guess DraftKings. You look at football in the UK, know, most football teams are sponsored by a gambling company, know, whoever, it's on their t -shirts and then it's all on the banners around the stadiums and the visuals, everything. Is that something you look at? Like that's a trend that I've looked at for like baseball and football is like where the public money is, especially in the major market teams. No, like I say, for me, I mean, you know sort of where the public money is anyway, because when you're following and tracking betting lines, betting lines are opened by the bookies and moved by the public. You know, if a fighter opens up as a plus 100 underdog, slight underdog, but then he closes at minus 200 favor, you know exactly where the public's money has gone because that's what's driven the line to grow that wide. So yeah, there's always different ways you can see where the public's got the money. Yeah. Yeah. So we got Marab, Grasso, Ortega. I've got O'Malley, Grasso, Lopez. That's what I meant. Watch me do all the analysis now and pick against what I said and then be wrong. This is why I said to you, look, if you've got that superstructure, because the thing is, I've got a bit, I don't get influenced by anybody anymore. I used to years and years ago. But I absolutely don't anymore. But the one thing that infuriates me is If I'm in it's not just with MMA if I bet on a football game or something I don't make a habit of it. It's just a little fun money while I'm enjoying the show and But if I bet if I've got a very strong feeling on a fighter for example and I decide Actually, maybe maybe I'd want a better line and if I get this line, I'll bet it so I stay disciplined. So save my fighters minus one 175 but I want minus 130 or minus 150 and I'm like look it's just a little bit too far out so I'm gonna stay disciplined I'm not gonna bet it that fighter go down and smashes his opponent it's infuriating because you know you had that strong lean but you've got to have an element of discipline but I can't imagine how infuriating it would be if I liked one side and then I decided to bet the other side because of public opinion and then my side actually won. That wouldn't sit right with me. I think there's something to be said about it. Like I hate losing more than I enjoy winning. Especially when it comes to, you know. It's funny you've said that because that's been one of my sort of mottos and phrases that I've lived by for years and years. You got a friend there, bruv. That's been one of my mottos and phrases that I've lived for years, that I hate to lose more than I love to win. Yeah. you're the only human being that has ever actually said that to me. too. I've never heard anybody else say it. I just noticed that with myself. I'll never talk about the wins that I have and just like, bruv, I was so close to hitting this and just... Those stories are way more fun to tell. No one wants to hear about your success. So... like, learning in this game, with the gambling game, I used to take losses hard. And when I say, what I mean by taking losses hard is they stayed with me for a few days. Whereas a would stay with me for few hours. And then I'm over it, I'm done. But a loss would stay with me for a few days. Now, now I'm more experienced, and I've been in the game for years and years, like, a loss just, a loss still stays with me a little bit more than a win. But you know, I'll lose and then about an hour later, I'm fine. a win, I'll win, I'll be buzzing for five minutes and then it's gone. Yeah, that's a, mean, there's the real way to make money long -term is, you know, betting discipline with a limit and a unit strategy and a And a bankroll can't stress that hard enough. I've never been able to build a bankroll enough to where it's like, I didn't have to pull the money out to pay for something else. but I have seen that there's companies now that will fund you basically to do the bets. Do you know anything about those? No, I've heard of like, well, I don't know if the handicap is the right word, other handicappers will take over people's betting accounts, is very, at least in the UK is very legal. You'll get your account shut down if they find out that you've logged into a betting account that's not yours. It's more like, You know, cause I was doing poker for a while and I was like thinking in my head, I'm like, these guys are so much balls. They're going and playing with their own million dollars, but like they're getting staked by sponsors and people that are putting money into them. So that's kind of what these things, I started getting ads for those two, like, do not have a bank roll. Like we'll fund you 50 ,000. If you can prove that you can hit these metrics. I was like, if you could do that, then you could actually pull off an income every month. know what? Yeah. I think we've doing that. adds an additional level of pressure that you don't need. Because again, I've known other professional gamblers that have, you know, charged people for the tips and for the bets and they've done it for a few years and then they've stopped charging, gone back to just giving the bets out for free and said that, look, I've got a massive weight off my shoulders. It's the best that I've ever felt. know, like I, again, in the early days of when I first started putting a price on what I do, I did have that stress and pressure as well of people are relying on me like if I lose a bet they lose a bet and I was more focused on on them than what I was myself. Yeah a lot of friends. With time and experience like I'm not saying that I don't care about anybody else because that's not true but I focus on me because if I do me and I do me well then everybody else does well. When I'm focusing on everybody else I'm worried about them and not myself. then that's when you'll start underperforming. I think in this game, you're charging people for a service when it comes to betting tips, you've got to have the head, the experience, and just being very calm and relaxed in what you do. Because if you don't, that's when things go south. just use a faceless page, dude. Don't even reveal who you are. Yeah, exactly. They said like the... The people who made the most money during the gold rush in America was the people selling the shovels. was like, yeah. That's what as opposed to shovel sellers that are usually selling picks. And you're like, shh. But I mean, I've joined some of those and they're sometimes right. But whenever my friends, because I'm usually, they'll hit me up and be like, what do I do for UFC today? And I'll send them the picks. I'm like, always make sure I text after, please bet responsibly. Yeah, yeah, exactly. Hey, I told you, But I'll always, I won't give someone a bet that I'm not taking myself. Yeah. So if I lost, like, you don't think I didn't lose too? Yeah, exactly. Yeah, yeah. Well, look, that's why on MMA play 365, we've got official bet section, because if you just want to bet on what I'm betting on, then it's there. That's where I'm physically putting my money. When I think even if you don't take your bets, I think reading... how you analyze it and seeing your strategy with units. Then you have like the different profitability straight. Like that was just all like cool information to get like, hey, put it on this first fight. If that hits, you got your profit. You can put a little bit more, enjoy the card. look, the reason, the main, main reason Adam, that the written breakdowns are on that because the written breakdowns are in a different section. They're in the long term gambler section. So there are three bets, three or four bets that I like. I might only take two of them. but the three or four bets that I think are good bets, because remember I use betting strategies as well. But the main reason for those written breakdowns is so somebody reading them can understand where I'm coming from with the bet, how I'm seeing the fight play out, because look, if I'm wrong, which like I said at the start of this, I've been wrong before, I'm gonna be wrong again. If I'm wrong, at least you can understand how I got to my decision. Yeah, yeah, dude, think I did better. I did better when people, I never put pressure or charged people because I'm not an expert but whenever I gave a paragraph, maybe I was just writing to myself a lot of time but I would give a paragraph as to why I'm choosing this bet. It would feel like I would do a lot better because it forced Because even if I lose that bet and somebody comes back and they're like, well, that was, it was an incorrect bet. Like, sometimes one of my fighters will be winning the fight and then they'll suddenly lose. but they'll be winning the fight in the way that I've stated they're gonna be winning the fight. And then it's MMA, it's volatile, and they might get knocked out or submitted in a flash way and lose. But at least you can understand that I was there, like I made an educated bet, and nothing in life sits here apart from debts and taxes. Well, like I said, what I would like too is like, not just the analysis, the, you actually lay out like three different betting strategies that you could take in order to secure a profit. put it on this, put it on your favorite two, pick those, first one hits. Or if one of those hits, then you're up. If neither of them hit, then you got your third one, maybe, or, you know, your different strategy. It just gave me new perspective on how to approach a UFC card where, you know, I might, in the past, have bet everything before everything started, and then just sit there and watch versus like, you know. Look the betting strategies is it like I've been doing this for over 10 years I know any anybody that's worth knowing in the in the in the handicapping game. I'll know I'll know them know of them and I've not seen this betting strategy at least the way I do it with anybody else before and I'm not saying people don't use betting strategies It's just I think and well there's no right or wrong way of doing it either like the betting strategies something that works for me and helped my rise in becoming a professional gambler and So therefore I'm going to stick to what I've learned, stick to the tools that I played around with and found what's successful for me. And now I'm relaying that in, you know, now there's a price on what I do. So when it comes to very reasonable, very reasonable price, I might add. Yeah. And look, the reason why it's so, it's so cheap in regards to what we charge is because the ethos that we have to live on in with this is anybody that's paying for our service to actually make money. to make profit yourself, you first have to cover the cost of the subscription. So if we were charging $100 a month, in that month, you've got to make $100 just to cover that subscription before you can even then start profiting on your bets. Now, if you're betting $10 a unit, covering $100 is gonna be a tough ask. Now, if you're betting $1 ,000 a unit, 100 dollars is probably a piece of piss but not everybody is going to be at that level to be able to spend a thousand dollars a unit so a month is 9 .99 which is the same as a Spotify subscription and Netflix subscription so it's already a number that you're comfortable paying for other services but it's also ten dollars so even if you're betting ten dollars a month sorry ten dollars a unit all you've got to do is profit one unit and you've covered you've covered your subscription and then you're on your own, you know, not on your own because you've got all our advice, but you're free rolling them for the rest of the month. So yeah, that's why our prices are so cheap. You've got to be able to make money back from the service before you can start profiting. Yeah, I know. And I mean, I think you, you know, you stand for the right things. So I've always appreciated that it was very affordable. Like, because I take breaks too, like sometimes I'm like, done betting for a while but I can just get it restart it whenever I want if I want to watch a card at 10 bucks. Well a single event is $4 .99 so if you only want one card you know it's $5 .00 it's like the price of a coffee. I've always said this you'll spend more on your drink and your takeaway watching an event than what you will actually spend and paying for the service that could. allow you to make profit on top of that. Our service could end up making you pay back the money that you spent on the subscription, your food, your drink for the night, and give you a little something extra to throw in for next week as well. I'm never ever picking Tied to a Bossa ever again, Ever. But yeah, dude, well, I appreciate you coming on. I know it's a long time coming, but... The UFC 306, Saturday, at the Sphere. Have you been to Vegas at all for a fight? Never been to Vegas, it's definitely on my bucket list. Nice. Yeah, dude, I went once when it was the one where Askren got knocked out by Mosfiedal, I was at that one. shit, yeah, It was a good one to be at. Yeah. But, yeah, UFC, how do you, I can't even say his last name, that's why I call him a Rob. but that will be... D .Y. Listerle. Yeah, Marab and Sean O'Malley, Valentina Shevchenko and Alexa Grasso. Newsome, appreciate you coming on. I'll make sure to have all your info in the show notes and a link where they can go check out MMA Play and all that. So, appreciate you coming on, Perfect. Thank you for having me, Adam. Like you said, it was a long time coming. You know, we've been talking for a while, so finally glad to... to get sort of face to face digitally and chat some bags. Yes, sir. All right, man. Take care.